Julio to be a remnant low in 96 hours

Current storm location:

At 11 a.m. Tuesday, Tropical Storm Julio continues moving away from the main Hawaiian islands. Julio is 520 miles north of Honolulu with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and traveling northwest at 6 mph.

NWS Tropical Storm Julio Public Advisory (11 a.m. update)

The satellite presentation of Julio has changed little over the past 12 hours as deep convection persists in the north and northwest quadrants.

While Julio remains essentially steady state in the short term, weakening is expected. Julio resides within a weakness in the subtropical ridge with a deep layered trough approaching from the northwest.

This approaching feature appears to be inhibiting outflow on the southwest quadrant and providing an outflow channel to the northeast while the cimss vertical wind shear estimate is about 15 kt from the southwest. Vertical wind shear should remain the same or slightly less through 24 hours and with sst values remaining near 27c only slight weakening is forecast in the next 24 hours.

The upper level trough will pass over or just north of Julio in the 36 to 48 hour time. Increased vertical wind shear is expected to hasten the weakening process. With this in mind, the forecast calls for julio to be a remnant low in 96 hours.

Julio continues to move to the northwest into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The forward motion has begun to slow as the ridge is being weakened by the approaching deep layer trough. The dynamic guidance is tightly clustered through the next 48 hours, showing continued northwest motion followed by an eventual turn toward the north as the ridge continues to weaken. Beyond 48 hours the guidance spread increases greatly due to the handling of Julio’s interaction with the upper trough passing by.

The forecast has been slowed down significantly from the prior forecast past 72 hours under the assumption that Julio will be weakened into a remnant low by 96 hours and will be steered mainly by a weak low level ridge to the northeast. The forecast is roughly in the middle of the dynamic guidance and near the tvcn.

5 Day Track for JULIO
5 Day Track for JULIO

KHON2’s complete Storm Watch coverage:

August 8, 2014

August 7, 2014

August 6, 2014

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