Jimena weakens to a tropical depression north of Hawaii

EDITOR’S NOTE: This post is an archive of the last update from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Jimena weakened to a tropical depression for the 5 a.m. update on Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2015.

At 5 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Jimena was located about 410 miles northeast of Honolulu and 440 miles north of Hilo.

Jimena is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph. This general motion is expected for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. A slow decrease in strength is forecast for the next couple of days.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles, mainly to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb.

Summary of 5 p.m. information:

  • Location: 26.0N 153.9W
  • About 410 miles NE of Honolulu
  • About 440 miles N of Hilo
  • Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph
  • Present movement: WSW at 8 mph
  • Minimum central pressure: 998 mb

Distances:

  • 440 miles N of Hilo
  • 495 miles N of Kailua-Kona
  • 545 miles N of South Point
  • 430 miles NNE of Hana
  • 435 miles NNE of Kahului
  • 435 miles NNE of Kaunakakai
  • 455 miles NNE of Lanai City
  • 410 miles NE of Honolulu
  • 460 miles NE of Joint Base PHH
  • 505 miles NE of Barking Sands
  • 485 miles NE of Lihue
  • 530 miles NE of Niihau

DISCUSSION:

There have not been many changes with Jimena over the past several hours, with the center mostly exposed to the west of a blob of convection.

Model guidance shows shear increasing to rather high values over the next day or so, likely causing a decrease in strength. The one caveat is that Jimena is expected to be moving over warmer waters and into a more moist atmosphere aloft as well, which could temper the weakening rate.

Visible images indicate the cyclone has turned west-southwestward  and is moving about 7 kt. This general motion is likely for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the west while the storm moves around a ridge to the north.

Jimena, or its remnants, should turn northwestward away from the Hawaiian Islands and accelerate in a few days ahead of a mid-latitude trough. The trough should then absorb the low by day 5.

Jimena is a sheared cyclone and consists of a large circulation of low clouds with some patches of deep convection to the east of the center. Given the lack of deep thunderstorm activity near the center, the satellite intensity estimates have continued to decrease. The global models separate the low-level from the mid-level center as quickly as 48 hours, and ships guidance indicate that strong shear will continue to impinge on the cyclone. On this basis, the official forecast calls for Jimena to become a remnant low in 48 hours or so. The low could remain lingering for a few more days.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS: Large swells generated by Jemena will continue to produce hazardous surf across east and northeast facing shores of the main Hawaiian islands through today.

Warnings/Cone
Warnings/Cone
Trop Storm Wind Speed
Trop Storm Wind Speed
Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule
Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule
Warnings and Surface Wind
Warnings and Surface Wind


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