Madeline downgraded to a tropical depression far from Hawaii

This will be the last update as Madeline is no longer a threat to Hawaii.

At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Madeline was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 160.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this general motion is expected to over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Madeline is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low Friday or Friday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


Click here for the latest on Hurricane Lester.


Summary information:

  • Location: 16.3N 160.3W
    About 380 mi SSW of Honolulu
    About 610 mi east of Johnston Island
  • Maximum sustained winds: 35 mph
  • Present movement: W or 265 degrees at 15 mph
  • Minimum central pressure: 1008 mb

Rainbow satellite


Discussion:

The satellite presentation show a slight increase in deep convection near the difficult to locate low level circulation center (LLCC) of Madeline since the last advisory. A 0511Z AMSU pass was helpful in determining the location of the LLCC, and based on satellite animations, the initial motion of Madeline is set to 265 degrees at 13 knots. The latest Dvorak fixes from the satellite agencies were too weak to classify from SAB, 1.5/25-30kt from JTWC to 2.5/35kt from PHFO. Based on a blend of the PHFO and JTWC current intensities, Madeline has been downgraded to a 30kt Tropical Depression.

Madeline will continue to track off to the west over the next few days on the southern periphery of a deep layered sub-tropical ridge north of Hawaii. The official CPHC track forecast was shifted shifted slightly to the south of the previous advisory, to closely follow the multi-model consensus TVCN over the next 36 hours, and the GFS/ECMWF (GFEX) consensus from 36 hours through dissipation.

Madeline is encountering light to moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear based on the UW-CIMSS product and SHIPS analysis. This wind shear in combination with very dry mid-level air will counteract very favorable sea surface temperatures of 28 to 29C, and lead to slow weakening over the next couple of days.

Madeline is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low Friday or Friday night, with dissipation expected by 72 hours.


Warnings/Cone
Warnings/Cone
Wind Speed Prob
Wind Speed Prob
Wind History
Wind History
Surface Wind
Surface Wind
Sea Surface Temp
Sea Surface Temp
Mariner's Rule
Mariner's Rule

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