Fernanda becomes a post-tropical remnant low east of Hawaii

Fernanda has weakened to a post-tropical remnant low, and is expected to dissipate on Monday.

Fernanda weakened due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear.

Although the forecast track does have Fernanda moving over warmer waters, the strong vertical wind shear will persist.

Fernanda is expected to dissipate to a trough after 36 hours, with this solution supported by virtually all of the dynamical and statistical guidance.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will not longer be issuing advisories on Fernanda.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 147.4 West.

The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue until dissipation on Monday, with some increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the remnant low of Fernanda is expected to dissipate by Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST INFORMATION

  • LOCATION…19.5N 147.4W
  • ABOUT 500 MI…805 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
  • ABOUT 690 MI…1110 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
  • MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
  • PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
  • MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

None.

Warnings/Cone
Warnings/Cone
Arrival
Time of Winds
Arrival Time of Winds
Wind Speed
Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities
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Surface Wind
Warnings and Surface Wind

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, only limited and sporadic convection has been noted in the northern semicircle of the poorly-defined low-level circulation center of Fernanda over the past several hours. This convection has not been sufficiently persistent for the system to continue to be deemed a tropical cyclone, and Fernanda is now post-tropical. The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt, based heavily on last night’s ASCAT pass, with these winds likely confined to the northern semicircle.

The initial motion estimate for this advisory is 285/8 kt. The increasingly shallow low is expected to continue on a west-northwest to west track within the low- to mid-level trade wind flow supported by a ridge well to the north, with some increase in forward speed. Although the forecast track takes the system over warmer waters, the strong vertical wind shear will persist, due to a longwave trough aloft to the northwest. Fernanda is expected to dissipate to a trough after 36 hours, with this solution supported by virtually all of the dynamical and statistical guidance.

This will be the final advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center on Fernanda. For additional information on the remnant low, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO header FZPN40 PHFO.

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